Golden Rice's current variety (GR2E) was ready by 2005. We used a realistic adoption curve: slow at first, then accelerating, then leveling off at a 70% ceiling. We assumed deployment would have started country by country between 2006 and 2013, depending on regulatory capacity and IRRI partnerships.

Under these assumptions, this model estimates approximately 106,000 children's lives lost (range 71,000–141,000) and 210,000–425,000 children blinded across these 11 countries from 2006 to 2024. The blindness estimate uses the WHO ratio: globally, 2–4x as many children go blind from vitamin A deficiency as die from it.